The better question is how far the US will go to provoke a war with China, as they did in Ukraine. I wish you could have a debate with Brian Berletic of the New Atlas, because he has a slightly different perspective on who benefits from the war with China.
Wouldn't China's oil pipelines take years to build? Unless they started building them many years ago, I don't see them having anything like "energy reliability" any time soon.
You said it here; "China is far more vulnerable to trade disruptions and sanctions than Russia is."
China's economic rise has been predicated on it's arguably mercantilist export engine. Think of what a Western blockage/boycott would do to this? The engine would seize up almost immediately, and literally Billions of Chinese would be out of work. If China were more isolated, I could see war/invasion as a viable scenario... but for now, my simple view is that it would constitute shooting oneself in the foot.
Agreed entirely. That's why I don't see it happening immediately. But the main argument against that point is that Xi is basically cut off from real information and is clearly prone to poorly considered and stubborn decisions. Also, an oil blockade would force China's hand, just like it did Japan's in the past. I don't see any way the CCP doesn't realize how vulnerable they are unless they're absolute fools.
It is because the whole world is so connected with China that they are not afraid to start a war for Taiwan. China should have a year's supply of oil. The West can simply decoratively sanction some non-vital companies and that's it.In addition, President Biden and General Milli seem to be afraid of nuclear war and direct confrontation with a nuclear power. It still seems to me that the whole world will be in the ass more than China. In addition, China is one of the main pillars of the dollar's dominance, so there will be a hybrid war rather. war is a separate economy separately
The neocons dumped MAD back under W. They replaced it with "decapitation strike" in the belief that if they nuke Moscow, Russia will fold. Under O, the development of sone sort of "fuze" made it possible. These psychos actually believe we can win a "limited" nuclear war.
That is why Russia developed a dead man's switch that they can put on fully automatic.
I just read an analysis yesterday or day before that US was prepping for it -- had planes playing 'nuclear chicken', doing practice runs at & turning away just 20 km from Russia's border, just days before the smo.
Any belief in a limited nuclear war is just crazy. In no scenario does it work, and strategists have known that for ages. But our policymakers are fools these days so it wouldn't surprise me if they thought limited nuclear war was possible.
The hypersonic missiles, nuclear torpedoes, and God knows what else add a layer of complexity to the situation that I don't think anyone can fully wrap their head around. Gamble upon gamble upon gamble.
General Milli called China's general that they would not allow Trump to launch a nuclear weapon when he threatened during the trade wars.I am absolutely glad that he would have done so, but in fact it is treason to the motherland on the verge of life or execution (I am forcing it). When Trump left the White House, he said it publicly.
A year's supply of oil, but what about all the other resources they import? Coal? Iron ore? What else? Semiconductors? They're super vulnerable. But yes, a conflict with China would mean economic ruination for the West, for sure
The better question is how far the US will go to provoke a war with China, as they did in Ukraine. I wish you could have a debate with Brian Berletic of the New Atlas, because he has a slightly different perspective on who benefits from the war with China.
Best regards.
I like the way you think. That's a big part of the next piece. Haven't stumbled across Brian Berletic yet but I'll check him out.
Thanks. Brian is an ex-Marine who lives in Bangkok, Thailand. He has a YouTube channel called The New Atlas.
Ah cool, sounds like my kind of guy. I'm in Vietnam now and used to live in Thailand. Appreciate the heads up
Wouldn't China's oil pipelines take years to build? Unless they started building them many years ago, I don't see them having anything like "energy reliability" any time soon.
Exactly
You said it here; "China is far more vulnerable to trade disruptions and sanctions than Russia is."
China's economic rise has been predicated on it's arguably mercantilist export engine. Think of what a Western blockage/boycott would do to this? The engine would seize up almost immediately, and literally Billions of Chinese would be out of work. If China were more isolated, I could see war/invasion as a viable scenario... but for now, my simple view is that it would constitute shooting oneself in the foot.
Agreed entirely. That's why I don't see it happening immediately. But the main argument against that point is that Xi is basically cut off from real information and is clearly prone to poorly considered and stubborn decisions. Also, an oil blockade would force China's hand, just like it did Japan's in the past. I don't see any way the CCP doesn't realize how vulnerable they are unless they're absolute fools.
In my opinion, quite the opposite.
It is because the whole world is so connected with China that they are not afraid to start a war for Taiwan. China should have a year's supply of oil. The West can simply decoratively sanction some non-vital companies and that's it.In addition, President Biden and General Milli seem to be afraid of nuclear war and direct confrontation with a nuclear power. It still seems to me that the whole world will be in the ass more than China. In addition, China is one of the main pillars of the dollar's dominance, so there will be a hybrid war rather. war is a separate economy separately
I hope Biden is afraid of nuclear war. It sure seems like he & his neocon pals are itching for it.
Sanctions against China would leave the US with hyperinflation due to shortages of just about everything.
Anyone who's not afraid of nuclear war either doesn't understand the concept or has no sense of self-preservation
The neocons dumped MAD back under W. They replaced it with "decapitation strike" in the belief that if they nuke Moscow, Russia will fold. Under O, the development of sone sort of "fuze" made it possible. These psychos actually believe we can win a "limited" nuclear war.
That is why Russia developed a dead man's switch that they can put on fully automatic.
I just read an analysis yesterday or day before that US was prepping for it -- had planes playing 'nuclear chicken', doing practice runs at & turning away just 20 km from Russia's border, just days before the smo.
Any belief in a limited nuclear war is just crazy. In no scenario does it work, and strategists have known that for ages. But our policymakers are fools these days so it wouldn't surprise me if they thought limited nuclear war was possible.
The hypersonic missiles, nuclear torpedoes, and God knows what else add a layer of complexity to the situation that I don't think anyone can fully wrap their head around. Gamble upon gamble upon gamble.
This is a difficult question.
General Milli called China's general that they would not allow Trump to launch a nuclear weapon when he threatened during the trade wars.I am absolutely glad that he would have done so, but in fact it is treason to the motherland on the verge of life or execution (I am forcing it). When Trump left the White House, he said it publicly.
A year's supply of oil, but what about all the other resources they import? Coal? Iron ore? What else? Semiconductors? They're super vulnerable. But yes, a conflict with China would mean economic ruination for the West, for sure