"Imagine [....], a breakdown of international trade routes (currently guaranteed by the US Navy) and a greater focus on internal trade."
I am sick and tired of this trope, that the US Navy guarantees the international trade routes. That is one of the falshoods the US keeps repeating. The role of the US Navy is (as stated by a retired US Admiral in an article ipublished by War on the Rocks) to disrupt enemy trade on the seas: see the acts of piracy on the Venezuelan tanker, the confiscation of cargo going from China to Iran, all happening this month.
Disagree strongly, though we may be headed towards what you've described by doing things like hijacking that tanker. The whole global trade order is guaranteed by the implied presence of the US Navy, which deters piracy. Ever looked into shipping insurance costs? If you want to find out what global trade would look like *without* the US Navy, well...you'd better hope other countries up their game.
These are counterfactuals that cannot be proven. Like non existence of God cannot be proven. And US doesn't even have that many ships to go around. Presently China, for instance, has more ships. And from what I have been reading, some "anti-piracy" patrols are done by other countries as well, especially in the Horn of Africa.
I cannot find the link, it was several years ago and don't have access to War on the Rocks archive. But that paragraph burned into my memory because it sounded very true.
Now there is full blockade against Venezuela. US and allies also conduct patrols to block North Korea for instance. This is their main purpose, not piracy, which is only endemic in South East Asia among those miriad of Islands covered by tropical jungles.
Sam, I've said it before and I will again. I don't know why your articles don't get more reach.
Im not just saying this to flatter you. I read fairly extensively, and your grasp and analysis is as good or better than many.
I wonder if you're getting algo blocked, or redirected?
"Imagine [....], a breakdown of international trade routes (currently guaranteed by the US Navy) and a greater focus on internal trade."
I am sick and tired of this trope, that the US Navy guarantees the international trade routes. That is one of the falshoods the US keeps repeating. The role of the US Navy is (as stated by a retired US Admiral in an article ipublished by War on the Rocks) to disrupt enemy trade on the seas: see the acts of piracy on the Venezuelan tanker, the confiscation of cargo going from China to Iran, all happening this month.
BTW share that link if you can find it, I'd love to read it
Disagree strongly, though we may be headed towards what you've described by doing things like hijacking that tanker. The whole global trade order is guaranteed by the implied presence of the US Navy, which deters piracy. Ever looked into shipping insurance costs? If you want to find out what global trade would look like *without* the US Navy, well...you'd better hope other countries up their game.
These are counterfactuals that cannot be proven. Like non existence of God cannot be proven. And US doesn't even have that many ships to go around. Presently China, for instance, has more ships. And from what I have been reading, some "anti-piracy" patrols are done by other countries as well, especially in the Horn of Africa.
I cannot find the link, it was several years ago and don't have access to War on the Rocks archive. But that paragraph burned into my memory because it sounded very true.
Now there is full blockade against Venezuela. US and allies also conduct patrols to block North Korea for instance. This is their main purpose, not piracy, which is only endemic in South East Asia among those miriad of Islands covered by tropical jungles.