Echoes of 1914: History Rhyming Again

Is the Israel-Palestine conflict the spark that ignites the world?

In 1888, German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck predicted, “One day, the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans.” As it turned out, he was entirely correct. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand by 20-year old Bosnian Serb Gavrilo Princip was that damned foolish thing. The act itself was a series of blunders that ended the way it did only through luck: Princip’s group, the Black Hand, had botched the original assassination attempt, injuring others in the motorcade instead. As the story goes, Princip had fled and, perhaps apocryphally, gone to get a snack when the Archduke’s car, having traveled off its intended path to visit wounded at the hospital, stalled directly in front of him. He took his opportunity and shot Ferdinand and his wife Sophie dead. 

A month later, all of Europe was engulfed in war. One could argue that Princip’s act was the single most important event of the 20th century, since it set in motion events that would reshape the world. But really, Bismarck’s prediction would likely have held true had Princip failed. There would have been some other damned foolish thing to occur. It was just a matter of time. 

Fast forward to now. Anyone paying attention in the last few decades could have made a prediction similar to Bismarck’s. It’d be this: “One day, the great Eurasian War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Middle East.” It’s a pretty easy prediction to make. 

As of this writing, it has been nearly a month since the brutal attacks of October 7th. Israel has invaded Gaza and encircled Gaza city. Untold thousands of Gazans have died, many of them women and children. As the atrocities accumulate, pressure on world leaders — especially those in Muslim countries — mount to do something. The disaster in Ukraine hasn’t even wrapped up yet but now all eyes are on Israel. Will the atrocities of October 7th be to the 21st century as Princip’s murder was to the 20th? 

History Rhyming

Eurasia is full of geopolitical fault lines (red) and chokepoints (green) where conflict is possible

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Comparing current events to those in the World War 1 era is a running theme in this publication, and for good reason. The war heralded the end of an era, redrew the map, and opened the door for new and radical ideologies to take hold. From the macro to the micro level, the parallels between now and then are many. 

Take for example the current conflict between Israel and Palestine. The situation was very similar in July, 1914. In response to the assassination, Austria-Hungary issued a completely unreasonable ultimatum to Serbia. Russia stepped in to defend their little Slavic Serb brothers, who appealed for help. Germany stepped in to defend Austria-Hungary from Russia. And then it was all too late. We may be seeing the same scenario playing out in real time, as Israel has indicated it intends to move all 2+ million Gazans into the Sinai in Egypt — a goal that I’d argue is completely unreasonable. 

On the macro scale, clear sides have been drawn for a potential major conflict, as they had prior to World War 1. On one side is the US-led NATO as well as allies in the Pacific like Japan and South Korea, and on the other is the emerging triple alliance between Russia, Iran, and China. In effect, Russia, Iran, and China represent the modern Central Powers, flanked by the Allies on both east and west. 

Diminishing US influence due to decades of botched foreign policy have left a power vacuum across the Middle East that someone will fill — but it’s been a powder keg for decades. And now a match has been flicked toward that powder keg. So will it go kaboom?

The Great Powers of 1914 have often been described as “sleepwalking” into the First World War. That is not the case — leaders knew full well where events were headed. But, horrified, those leaders looked on helplessly as the conflagration grew beyond the control of anyone. The same appears to be happening now, as well. It’s not guaranteed, but it is quite possible.

Two crucial questions will decide the future:

1. Will Muslim leaders follow the same script as Russia did in 1914 and come to the defense of Gaza? 

2. Can we expect another attack in the style of October 7th, whether in Israel or elsewhere? 

From Eons of Context to Blurry Weeks

People have been fighting over the Holy Land for thousands of years. Are we so silly to think it will stop?

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We have to laugh at least a little bit about the absurdity of our species. After all, who’d have guessed that a region historically claimed by Egyptians, Canaanites, Hebrews, Assyrians, Chaldeans, Persians, Macedonians, Seleucids, Romans, Arabs, Crusaders, Mamluks, Ottomans, and the British — among others — could be a hotspot for conflict? Stir in religious fervor, eschatological prophecy, and modern weapons, and you’ve got a recipe for the Big One™. I mean, duh. 

So really, putting things in perspective is hard when there is more emotion and history wrapped up in this one tiny place than anywhere else in the world. 

Because emotions are running so high and because there’s so much at stake, I hesitate to do a super-detailed play-by-play account of what’s currently taking place. Keeping up with daily developments is like drinking from a firehose full of propaganda. But here’s a brief summary of the way things currently stand: 

• Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza continues, having penetrated towards the sea from the East and encircled Gaza city, and the IDF is taking casualties

• Tensions are flaring in the West Bank as conflicts between settlers and Palestinians erupt

• Minor clashes continue with the IDF and Hezbollah along Israel’s northern border

• Turkey’s Erdogan has voiced his support for Palestinians multiple times and has accused Israel of war crimes and “acting like a gang”

• Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels have fired long-range rockets at Israel over Saudi Arabian and Jordanian airspace, angering both countries

• The US has condemned Israeli settler violence in the West Bank against Palestinians

• Both Israel and the US have rejected calls for a ceasefire

• Egypt continues to reject calls to allow Palestinians to flee en masse to Sinai

By the time you read this, more will have changed, but I think that’s an adequate description of the current situation. 

If you want a quick takeaway, it’s this: No one is backing down, violence is intensifying, and deaths are quickly mounting. 

Israel seeks the expulsion of all Gazans to Egypt, while Egypt rejects the idea outright. The US is trying to keep Israel on somewhat of a tight leash but is largely failing. Most buildings in northern Gaza have been damaged or destroyed, and infrastructure is all but gone. Israel refuses all fuel to Gaza, and water and food are reported to be in extremely short supply. Protests against violence are growing around the world. 

And now I’m out of breath. 

The Big Question

Israel noted that Palestinians will be allowed to return to this after the war is over.

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So, again, back to the Big Question: Will Muslim leaders sit back and let this happen, or will they intervene? State actors and non-state actors alike will play a role. And at some point, leaders will be forced to pick a side. 

Consider Iran for a moment. Iran partially funds Hamas, but does not control them, unlike Hezbollah. Iran is predominantly Shia, while Hamas is Sunni. So Iran may not get involved unless the conflict with Hezbollah grows. However, Iranian-backed groups have reportedly attacked US bases in Iraq and Syria, heightening tensions. 

Consider this, too: Iranian ground troops crossing vast expanses of open desert to get to Israel is a silly idea, but they do have plenty of missiles and drones. Complicating the issue further is that many US warhawks have long pushed for a war with Iran and may look for any opportunity to start one. If Iran gets involved, then so will the US, and then Russia likely will, too. Only a lunatic wants that scenario. 

Turkey has been making lots of noise, but is a NATO member. Turkey getting involved would essentially cancel its membership in NATO and would flip the script in the region entirely. Is it out of the question? I don’t know. But the more people that die in Gaza, the more likely it becomes. 

Saudi Arabia has been attempting to normalize relations with Israel for some time now, and has been relatively quiet on the war. Yemen’s involvement may force them to take a side, but for now they have remained on the sidelines. 

Syria is too busy with their own conflict to get involved, but does host Russian bases, which raises stakes. 

Egypt categorically rejects the idea of Palestinians being relocated to their land. But as a longtime ally of the US and having had good relations with Israel for decades, Egypt fighting Israel would be a major change. Egypt has been a major recipient of US foreign aid for many years. But forcing Palestinians into their land would clearly not be received well. 

Non-state actors like Islamist groups represent a real wild card. If I were to place a bet, I’d wager that we can expect another major attack from one of them. How and when is anyone’s guess, but it’s a safe bet. The religious tones played up by Netanyahu and the Islamist groups alike all but ensure escalating violence. 

I’m curious what readers think about these topics. I can’t read minds and am not privy to backroom discussions, and you can be sure there’s a lot going on behind the scenes.

Closer to the Beginning or the End? 

It’s only been a month since this war kicked off. But the conflict has been brewing for a long, long time. Are we close to the end of it? I doubt it. The stage is set for this conflict to grow and get completely out of hand. It would only take one more wrong move. 

We’re in a situation where there are no guarantees. There are only possibilities. Unfortunately, I think the most pessimistic scenario is the most likely: That this blows up into a broader, regional war, and represents a second front opening in what future historians will likely describe as the Third World War. These recent weeks that have been so blurry will be described in perhaps a sentence in future history textbooks. Yet no history textbook has properly prepared students of history for such an event simply because so much happens so fast. As I alluded to last spring, sometimes there are weeks where decades happen. And here we are again. 

Despite all of our technological advances, we are a thoroughly emotional species. Israelis are right to feel aggrieved. So are Gazans. Thus those that sympathize with either side will further emote and throw their weight behind conflict and not resolution.

Back to Otto von Bismarck for a moment: He also said, “The Balkans are not worth the bones of one Pomeranian grenadier.” As an American, my sentiment is similar regarding American involvement in the Middle East. We should get out and stay out.

Overall, the most logical thing for all parties right now would be to lay down arms, declare a ceasefire, and begin immediate and permanent peace talks. That’s what I’d like to see, of course. 

While we’re on that note, I’d also like a flying Rolls Royce and a unicorn that cooks me breakfast. Perhaps an all-expenses-paid trip to the moon. A boy can dream, right?