Year of the Gray Rhino and Black Swan

2024 has already been wild, and it may mark a historic turning point

“I wish, I wish, I wish that something would happen.” 

-Radiohead, The Bends, 1995

For those Western folks who remember the 90’s well, it was a period of unparalleled peace, prosperity, and stability. Somehow, however, there was an angst notable in the period that stability was stifling and boring and, most importantly, meaningless. You can look to movies like Office Space, Fight Club, American Beauty, or many others to get a sense of just how unsatisfied the cultural zeitgeist was with what appeared to many to be a vapid consumerist society with no struggle and thus no meaning. Whether conscious or not, it seems that people yearn for struggle and conflict as a way to give their lives a purpose. Examining why is its own question, and may well make for an interesting discussion in the future. 

Fast forward about 30 years and, well, things sure are happening. They’re happening so fast I’ve had to go back and redo this piece multiple times, which I’ve now decided to make a series. The initial piece was originally intended to come out on the day of the Lunar New Year, February 10th, but there’s been so much to keep track of that following information has been drinking from a firehose. 

For a broad perspective: If I traveled back to the 90’s and described what was going on now, the people listening would have dubbed me Nostradumbass and laughed me out of the room, potentially to heave me ignobly into a padded cell. And yet here we are. A cabin in the woods sure sounds nice about now, doesn’t it?

To make an exhaustive list of all the weird, wild stuff that’s been happening would take up too much space and would likely recap events that many readers are already aware of. You can pick your poison for whatever you find the most shocking: brutal wars in Ukraine and Israel backed by the US, a global realignment of economic and diplomatic structures, energy infrastructure under attack, tech dominance of social life, astounding levels of debt and inflation, the pandemic and the response to it, a former US president being politically targeted by the current administration, shipping being attacked in the Red Sea, the US lurching into civil strife, illegal immigration dominating Western political discourse including US states standing up to Washington, and so on. 

There’s funny things, too. Ben Shapiro becoming the #1 rapper, Stephen Hawking showing up on the Epstein client list, and secret tunnels discovered under the Chabad Lubavitch world headquarters in New York are all amusing in a way. 

Year of the Grey Rhino and Black Swan

In the Lunar calendar used in countries like China and Vietnam, the current year is now the Year of the Dragon. For many Westerners, this is not particularly important and represents little more than a mere curiosity. 

However, I’d like to repurpose the animal-zodiac concept for this year and propose a title for this particular year. This will be the year of the Black Swan and the Grey Rhino. If you’re reading this, you’ve quite possibly thought to yourself or had conversations indicating that 2024 will be a wild ride. It already has been, but it’s barely begun. This year clearly represents a turning point and will likely determine the direction of our civilization for the next decade at least, if not longer. 

To culturally appropriate the Taoist concept of balance exemplified in the Yin-Yang symbol, the swan and the rhino are about as opposite as it gets. The swan is nimble, graceful, and capable of flight, while the rhino is bulky, clumsy, and earthbound. Both are aggressive, but in quite different ways. I think there’s something to this dichotomy, but don’t want to stretch the analogy too far to get into woo-woo mysticism. 

In short, here’s what we can expect from 2024: There will be unanticipated events that will dramatically shape our world. Those are the black swans, and I’d be a fool to tell you where they’re going to hatch. I can, however, give an indication as to where the eggs are laid. 

The gray rhino, on the other hand, is far more obvious. It represents an enormous, charging problem that’s predictable. Despite their predictability and obviousness, gray rhinos are often ignored until it’s too late. You can be certain there are multiple gray rhinos charging at us this very moment. By “us,” I mean the human race, and especially the developed world. 

While this year is certainly one that has many on tenterhooks and has already provided astounding and alarming bits of entertainment, there’s room for optimism as well. The goal of this series is not any form of doom-peddling, but rather an analysis of the reasonable risks we face. 

The series will cover the following topics, each its own piece: 

• Illegal immigration

• Economy and debt

• Geopolitics and war

• Cultural divide, information silos, and big tech

• Elections

• Demographics

• Electronic and physical infrastructure

• The good news 

The piece on illegal immigration is first in line. As always, I’ll be curious to hear readers’ thoughts, and may have to adapt to quickly changing events. 

Morale and Purpose

A brief note here to round out this series introduction. I got demoralized towards the end of 2023, which saw my writing production drop. It’s easy to get demoralized and feel helpless in the face of everything going on. It’s also equally tempting to tune out news and simply focus on your immediate surroundings.

But the situation is far from hopeless. As individuals, it may seem like we’re not particularly powerful. But a small group of well-informed and motivated people can make major changes to their local area and to the minds of those around them, which translates into large-scale change in general. A single raindrop doesn’t make a flood, but the flood wouldn’t happen without each individual drop.

You couldn’t blame an illiterate medieval serf for not having the resources or education to do much about their society. But as well-educated, literate, thoughtful people, we all have a responsibility to at least do something. For me, that something is this writing. So that even if we slide into a wild totalitarian future, have our currency lose yet more of its value, or get involved in more unjust wars, I can look my son in the eye and say at least I at least tried something.

There’s significant room for optimism. The endless propaganda, nudge units, and dying corporate media are signs that the fight for freedom is far from a lost cause. And really, freedom from coercion, oppression, and corruption is an excellent end goal. If I can do anything to make that more likely then I’ll call it a win.

If you find yourself demoralized, know that you’re not alone. Simply voicing the idea helps combat it. Making common cause with like-minded others can make for a major morale boost.

That’s all for now. More coming soon. Thanks for reading.