The Praetorian Problem: Then and Now

When the power-adjacent seize power, governments go rogue

Let’s have a brief thought experiment. There are five men in a room. Four of them are important decision-makers, and the other is a guard. He’s the only one with a gun. At first, he’s got a deep sense of loyalty and purpose — he’s there to protect men more important than himself, and he’ll put his life on the line if necessary. 

But after some time, he’s overheard a lot of conversations that indicate the four decision-makers don’t necessarily have strong morals. In fact, some of them appear to be working exclusively for their own benefit and not for the larger, noble cause he thought he served. In some cases, he’s been asked to do things that go against his own moral compass in service of these men, and that moral compass thus becomes corrupted. 

At some point, the man with the gun will realize he’s the one with the actual power. Because, despite what your kindergarten teacher probably said, violence can in fact solve problems. It’s the main power from which all others are derived. 

I’m sure readers have grokked this analogy. After all, it’s a fairly universal one. I call it the Praetorian Problem not just because I admire alliteration, but because I think many readers will get the idea.  

It goes like this: In almost every military empire, the same problem arises at some point, usually after a major expansion in power. The power-adjacent — in many cases formerly elite military units or similar — grow in power until they dominate their government. Then they twist the empire’s policies for their own ends. This is an age-old problem that is only exacerbated by the degree of an empire’s centralization. 

I’ve titled this piece “The Praetorian Problem” because there are few better examples of the power-adjacent seizing power than the power the Roman Praetorians had on both choosing and managing the Emperor once the Senate lost its mandate — all the while ballooning their own budget and helping bankrupt the empire. 

Rome is far from unique in this circumstance. Another fine example is that of the Janissaries in the Ottoman Empire, who corrupted their Sultans for centuries until their eventual disbandment. The result was the same: The empires were weakened from within to the point that they were a shadow of their former selves, and never recovered. 

One of the major problems that comes from having a formerly elite military unit become bureaucratically entrenched is that they have to constantly pick fights and start wars to continue justifying their own budget and existence. The entrenchment leads to ossification and the wars lead to bankruptcy, which leads to the fall of empires. 

And now to the US

The US has its own Praetorian Problem, though it’s orders of magnitude more complicated than that of the Romans or Ottomans. I contend the US transitioned from a Democratic Republic to an Empire somewhere in the 20th century. When exactly is up for debate, and I’ll be curious to hear readers’ opinions, but the clearest timeline would be after the Second World War. 

What’s not up for debate, however, is that the power wielded by the three-letter-agencies (TLAs) ostensibly under the power of the Executive Branch have far outstripped any Constitutional power ascribed to them. They’re actively undermining the country for their own ends. And I fear that the United States will fall for the same reasons as the Roman and Ottoman Empires, as well as countless others that followed the same arc. They metastasize like a cancer and, like cancer, will kill their host if left unchecked. 

At the same time, the bureaucratic state takes charge of daily affairs in an Empire, almost always to their own benefit. Think of the amount of times the Court Eunuchs in Chinese empires have come to dominate politics and you’ll get a clearer picture here. We have our own Court Eunuchs in the US, but they’re unfortunately unsterilized. 

When you have a Praetorian Problem, it usually doesn’t end well. Maybe we can do better this time. 

But first let’s talk about Rome a bit since it’s fun. 

Praetorians, Janissaries, and the Deep State

Having special guards for the Consul was an old practice in Rome, and the term “Praetor” is one that goes back a long time. But the first real problem of note with the Praetorians was under Sejanus. Sejanus was executed for treason by the emperor Tiberius, but not before he’d drastically expanded the role and power of the Guard, nearly becoming Emperor himself. I recommend readers take the time to read about Sejanus on their own time, since he’s one hell of an interesting character. 

To sum up a centuries-long problem, the Praetorian Guard metastasized into the power-behind-the-power, or what we’d call today the Deep State. They were wildly expensive, often demanding extortionate payments from Emperors for “protection.” This is better known as a protection racket. 

That protection racket began in earnest with the emperor Claudius, who the Praetorians directly thrust into power when they found him hiding behind a curtain after the assassination of Caligula. The Senate was about to proclaim a Republic again, which would have rendered the Praetorians largely out of a job. So, Claudius offered them a hell of a lot of money (5x their annual salary is the most comfortably accepted figure). This set a precedent that would continue for centuries: Each new emperor had to pay protection money to the Praetorians, or they’d lose their heads. In the year 69 AD, for example — the year of the Four Emperors — the first of the Four, Galba, was murdered by the Praetorians for refusing to pay them money they’d been promised by yet someone else trying to be Emperor. 

This payment scheme played a significant role in the debasement of the Roman currency, which itself played a significant role in the weakening of the Empire. The Praetorians were finally abolished by Emperor Constantine, but only after some 300 years of damage, including the assassinations of numerous Emperors. This includes the assassination of Aurelian, who essentially single-handedly brought an end to the Crisis of the Third Century and sought to end the corruption that had become endemic in the Empire.  

Janissaries played a similar role to the Praetorians in the Ottoman Empire, though of course with their own flavor of corruption. Most importantly, they fomented numerous revolts against their Sultan while resisting any outside change or threats to their political dominance. It got to the point where when they were abolished in 1826 it was simply too late for the Ottoman Empire to reform to keep up with industrializing Europe. I could go deeper into the history of the Janissaries or Ottomans, or even other examples of elite units taking the reins of Empire, but we need to get back to now. 

The main point is this: Deep States are nothing new. They happen in every powerful, centralized empire. And they’re damn sure here now. 

Corollaries to the Modern US Three-Letter Agencies

I gotta admit, I’m having fun with my AI image tool.

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The modern United States is orders of magnitude more complicated than Rome or the Ottoman Empire, which were themselves quite complicated. But there are still striking parallels. 

If we were to draw any parallel between a three-letter agency guy and Sejanus, for example, a close comparison would be J. Edgar Hoover, who directed the FBI for nearly 40 years. Both men directed their respective agencies to far greater power than they’d initially been created for, wielding enormous influence in every aspect of internal politics. 

J. Edgar Hoover is the center of a wild number of conspiracy theories, including his unusual sex life, but that’s a topic that’s about as deep a rabbit hole as there is. 

An important note: President Lyndon Johnson lifted the former mandatory retirement age of 70 specifically for Hoover so he could remain FBI director indefinitely. Interestingly, not 3 years later, the same Johnson signed into law the Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967. So, if you’ve ever wondered why there isn’t a mandatory retirement age for government workers, including Congress, you now have an answer. 

There’s much more, of course. If you look to elite military units that have morphed into something much different than their original intent, look no further than the CIA. It began as the Office of Special Services, carrying out dirty and dangerous work during World War 2 before earning its new status. 

And, if you subscribe to the theory that the CIA had at least a hand in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, which I do, then it looks a whole hell of a lot like the Praetorians whacking an Emperor that didn’t listen to them. 

That one act might just have heralded a new era, and I’d argue it did. All the alphabet soup agencies are overstepping their bounds and making the Constitution null and void. They realized they hold the real power and not elected officials. There was absolutely no legal authority for the Center for Disease Control and Health and Human Services to prevent landlords from evicting tenants who didn’t pay rent, but it happened anyway. There wasn’t even any Constitutional authority to impose lockdowns during Covid, but it happened. 

The concepts of “Legal” and “Constitutional” have lost a lot of their meaning in the face of permanent emergencies and sclerotic, corrupted elected bodies — composed of people who are often themselves far too old. Regulatory agencies just make up their own rules without any vote from Congress. The US is not the representative democracy it presents itself to be.

And that’s directly tied to the Praetorian Problem. It’s the bureaucratic state taking over actual power and doing whatever the hell they want. In this case, the Court Eunuchs (if you need examples, I’ve got plenty) teaming up with the Praetorians to enforce their will. It’s the full realization of actual power. And if we don’t do something about it fast, it’ll only get worse. I haven’t even gone into the corrupting power of fiat currency, regulatory capture, spiraling government debt, or more, since I want to keep this relatively brief. But I think you get the picture by now. 

What Is to Be Done?

So, what do we do when we’ve got our own Praetorian Problem? The key is this: Capture of a central government only happens when the government is centralized. A strong centralized government is the problem. In the US, for example, we have at least 50 different containment zones for corruption. But this particular cancer is at the core of the US, and by that, I mean Washington, DC. 

In the wake of the George Floyd riots, the phrase “Defund the Police” became popular. I propose an alternative: “Defund DC.” There are many ways this can happen. We can discuss ideas further in another post. 

I’ll repeat, since it’d make a good chant: “Defund DC.” 

I’ve heard people ask how exactly to stand up to a government that’s gone rogue. The first thing you have to do is get enough people used to the idea. How much “enough” is exactly is up for debate, but it’s more than we have now. I’d remind readers that elected Sheriffs can arrest Federal and State agents who are acting against the law as they can with anyone.

If we do nothing, we can expect more wars, more debt, higher inflation, and an overall deterioration of the country. Think it can’t get worse? I suggest reading up on the Crisis of the Third Century (second time I’ve linked in this article so, seriously, do it), with out-of-control inflation, civil war, and complete instability in governance. The Praetorians played a large role in Rome getting to that point. Let’s not get there ourselves.