Grey Rhinos and Black Swans: Illegal Immigration

Nothing like this has happened before and gone well

Feb 28, 2024

If there’s any aspect of current events that defines the gray rhino and black swan metaphor, it is the millions of illegal immigrants pouring into the US and Europe. It’d best be described as a charging rhino with a flock of black swans on its back, fluttering off and laying their eggs who knows where.

For reference, I’ll be using the term “illegal immigrant” because it is the correct term, and not “economic migrants” or any other terminology. Some immigrants are asylum seekers, yes, but the vast majority of those entering the country cannot adequately be described as such. So, we’ll stick with the real term, since terminology matters. This post is decidedly not about legitimate asylum seekers nor is it about legal immigrants. Talented and educated immigrants should be encouraged to continue to come to the US or Europe (or anywhere else that will treat them well), as attracting the best and the brightest is simply smart policy.

Another introductory note: Pay attention to knee-jerk emotional reactions you may encounter while reading this post, or any other controversial topic. Often, controversial topics get rooted in a person’s emotional belief structure rather than remaining in a flexible, cerebral state that’s open to change and challenge. The term “illegal immigrant” itself is often enough to cause consternation in many if not outright hostility to whoever says it. Ask yourself: Why is that? Why have soft language terms like “migrants” or explanatory terms like “economic migrants” replaced the accurate term in current discourse?

Frequently, criticizing immigration policy is misconstrued as demonizing immigrants themselves. Emotionalizing the topic makes discussion much more fraught. So, should you find yourself feeling an upwelling of emotion, stop and consider that emotion and where it comes from.

Back to the main topic: The border crisis in the US currently dominates much political discourse, with 80% saying the government is doing a bad job handling border policy, and for good reason. We’ve only begun to see the long-lasting and ill effects of the absurd policy of letting in millions of unvetted people from all over the world, and it’s a fool’s errand to predict exactly how this plays out. Because this topic is so large, and I’m American, I’ll largely but not exclusively focus on what’s been going on in the US.

Safe Bets on Insecurity

Eventually, some bad actor is going to hit the jackpot.

There are some assumptions we can make, however. First and foremost, we can assume that hostile actors are sending in spies, saboteurs, and terrorists to cause chaos and disrupt society once given the “go” signal. Consider: If adversarial countries like Russia, China, or Iran are not sending agents across the open border, they’d be woefully remiss in their duties. And, further, since we’ve somehow forgotten that, yes, Islamic terrorism is a real thing and, yes, many Muslims are (rightfully) furious with the US for backing Israel’s slaughter in Gaza, I’m afraid we’ll soon be reminded of this fact.

Consider further some ~7.5 million known encounters with illegal immigrants have taken place in the US since the Biden regime came to power, including 1.7 million getaways. That does not include the uncounted illegal immigrants, the number of which we can only begin to guess at.

If only 1% of those had hostile intentions in the country, that’d represent 75,000 people. Even .1% represents a still-frightening 7,500. Considering the 1% figure is half the size of the entire UK armed forces, that’s a deeply troubling number and comparison.

From a broad perspective, one could be forgiven for thinking that those allowing this mass unvetted immigration were actively seeking to undermine or outright destroy their own societies. After all, the immigration is optional — open borders are a policy decision. And while there is plenty of weaponized altruism in the form of the naively benevolent, there’s an unmistakable stench of malevolence coming from the top.

The most important question to ask is this: Who actually benefits from open border policies? I’ll leave that question largely open for now.

There’s always the argument that immigrants are needed to replace dwindling populations in countries that have somehow forgotten how to have babies. As the argument goes, they’re needed to prop up pension schemes and other government programs with taxable labor. But with untold billions of dollars and euros going to support illegal immigrants, is this obvious ponzi scheme anywhere close to solvent or practical? I’m curious to hear readers’ thoughts.

The Way We Were

Having grown up in Texas, I’ve been personally aware of the effects of illegal immigration my entire life. But it wasn’t always the way things currently are. Throughout the 1990’s, for example, the vast majority of illegal immigrants were simply people from Mexico, largely men, coming to work jobs to support their families back home. I worked with many of these men in restaurants and a warehouse, and they were normal guys with normal life aspirations. We’d banter and laugh and have a good time. Legal status notwithstanding, none of them were violent criminals and I certainly wouldn’t have considered them a threat to society.

For one example, when I was 12, my father and I hired a Mexican day laborer from outside a Home Depot to help us build a patio. After a week working together, he’d proven to be so trustworthy that my father was comfortable enough leaving him alone with me in our house to finish the job. And that’s all that happened — he did his work, we got along well, and there was never any hint of malicious intent from him. Far from it: He was just a guy just looking to make some money. A combination of economic factors and lax border security simply allowed him to make more money than he would have back home. And yes, while policies that allowed men like him in may have depressed wages, you can blame the system, but I don’t blame him.

His intention was always to return home, and I assume he did. That situation is a far cry from what we’re experiencing now, with people coming to stay permanently. It’s completely different, and not in a good way.

Malicious Intent and Banal Complications

As I’ve noted previously, a handful of guys with nothing more than a van, some hand tools, and a cell phone can cause huge disruptions to a city. Add guns to the mix and it gets worse. It’s easy to sever fiber optic cables, call in bomb threats, or take potshots at power substations. Since it’s very likely military-trained men have entered the country, we can assume they possess much greater capabilities than just that. Tens of thousands of Chinese, for example, have illegally crossed into the US in 2023 alone. And those are the ones we know of. How many of those are military men? I’m afraid we’ll only find out the hard way.

Then there’s the more mundane but equally troubling economic aspect brought about by the millions of non-hostile “economic migrants” simply looking for a better life. Mass deportations may seem tempting, but it’d be one of the biggest policing operations in history, so we have to assume millions will remain. The Federation for American Immigration Reform estimates that illegal immigrants cost US taxpayers $150 billion per year, and that number is only set to grow. New York City’s plan to hand out prepaid cash cards to migrants is just one step in goodness knows what direction, but one that likely results in a quagmire.

Questions abound as to the future of these immigrants. What will they do for work? Where will they be housed? How will they integrate into society, if at all?

Finger-pointing and Finger-wagging

Common phrases in support of illegal immigration include, “No human is illegal!” And indeed, while no human’s existence is or should be illegal, their presence certainly can be. Imagine I were to illegally cross into, say, Turkey seeking employment and expecting to receive anything but jail time, deportation, or maybe a beating. That sounds crazy, doesn’t it? But it’s the current policy in the US and Western Europe. I promise you most of the world is scratching their heads trying to figure out what on Earth we’re thinking.

Certainly, it’s hard to blame someone for wanting a better life. It is, however, easy to blame those who encourage the migration and make huge amounts of money off the sordid trade. Non-governmental organizations are making this most massive human trafficking organization of all time a lucrative business indeed, all while encouraging migrants to undergo a brutal and dangerous route to enter the United States. If the mission to accommodate illegal immigrants were truly compassionate, why not just offer direct flights into the country?

To no one’s surprise, there’s been a major uproar from ordinary citizens and government officials alike. So-called “sanctuary cities” like New York and Chicago are crying foul at these migrants showing up on their doorstep despite calling for them. Many Americans are rightly upset that these migrants are being given housing, cash, and food, often at the expense of the communities they come to inhabit.

That illegal immigrants recently attacked and beat up New York police officers and were released the next day only to flip off the cameras highlights the madness of the current situation. A reasonable question would sound like, “What the hell are we doing?”

(Please forgive the Fox News/Sky News insert — it’s the most comprehensive video I could find, and this should not be interpreted as my support for Fox or Sky.)

This is not a problem that goes away anytime soon. More likely, this predicament will fester like an open sore until it goes gangrenous or people have enough and decide to expel them. But how would that even work, and how much would it cost? Should President Trump be re-elected, he promises to conduct the greatest mass deportation in world history, but it’d be a hell of a feat to accomplish. Is it feasible? I doubt it. The blowback would be immense as well, so it may not be realistic at scale.

Considering integration: Recall that it took two generations of what was generally a moratorium on immigration to the US to integrate disparate ethnic groups, and then consider we don’t have that much time on our hands to solve this problem.

You’ll note that the above description centers around the US. However, the situation is much the same in Western Europe, with migrants from the Middle East and Africa especially flooding borders. The questions and glaring problems remain the same, with the added effect of a large Islamic presence being fundamentally incompatible with liberal, secular Western societies. I realize that may be an inflammatory statement to some, but I challenge any who would wish to prove me wrong. You cannot have two codes of law and ethics operating in the same society and expect stability.

Worst of all, there’s no apparent plan in place to ameliorate the situation or stem the tide of immigration. I can’t think of any society in history that has successfully navigated such a rapid and massive influx of immigrants, and I don’t see any good solutions presenting themselves. Rome suffered wave upon wave of migration, yes, but not from the entire world. And the result? Well, it wasn’t a good one.

An Example from France

The topic of cross-cultural migration has long interested me. For some context, I lived in France in 2005-06 as a student. The huge numbers of immigrants from North Africa especially intrigued me, as many hadn’t integrated into society after generations despite being remarkably friendly in my experience. So, I set about writing a lengthy research paper on the history of the topic, diving deep into policy and predictions.

My conclusion? It was a mess, governments had failed to anticipate the results of their actions, and the whole situation would only get worse. There was no plan in place then and there still is not. Meanwhile, millions more have come in.

One interview from a shopkeeper stands out in my mind to this day. As in many cultures, language and behavior patterns differ between ethnic and economic groups. This is true of France’s banlieues (suburb/immigrant ghetto), where things can be a bit rough around the edges, to put it lightly.

As this shopkeeper explained, “If I were to hire an inhabitant from the banlieue, speaking like he’s from the banlieue and behaving like he’s from the banlieue, how would it reflect my business? I could expect to lose customers, couldn’t I? This is my livelihood, and I can’t afford to lose it.” So, it’s often hard for banlieue inhabitants to get work in normal, respectable businesses, and many remain stuck in their enclaves. Of course there are those who do successfully integrate, but the scenario put forward by the shopkeeper is unfortunately quite common.

And while some, especially on the self-described tolerant left, would argue that tolerance and acceptance of these differences are the answer, it’s simply not the way the real world works. The shopkeeper has a point: He has an image to maintain, and decorum is important when running a business. The failure to integrate has occurred on all sides: on the side of the immigrants, on the side of the government for not encouraging cultural assimilation, and on the side of the locals for not wishing to commingle. You can’t change human nature overnight, and to assume that can happen is simply foolish. The words “racism” or “xenophobia” are quickly losing their power as they’ve been abused and watered down. People who, deep down, are far from racist are sick to the back teeth of hearing about it. More on that in a future post.

One irksome possibility in the US is that the Federal Government appears to intend to induct illegal immigrants into the military with the offer of citizenship as a reward for enlisting and serving. Considering military recruiting targets in the US are falling considerably short due to mental health problems, obesity, and academic shortfalls, you can be sure the Pentagon is looking to shore up its recruitment. This is especially critical as the US seems increasingly likely to get involved in a major international war, whether in the Middle East, Ukraine, or the West Pacific. Just recently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said that it’s only a matter of time until Ukraine joins the organization. Since Russia has made it clear that’s a bright red line, that means war is all the more likely — hence a dire need for soldiers. It sounds crazy, but it’s unfortunately true.

This would represent a “Service Guarantees Citizenship” scenario like that seen in Starship Troopers, and the long-term ramifications of such a policy are hard to predict.

Of course, any discussion of the state of the border crisis in the US would be remiss if it didn’t include a discussion of the standoff between states and the Federal Government. Texas Governor Abbott declared the border situation an invasion and some 25 states have backed him, including states lĵike Florida sending National Guard troops to help defend the border.

The situation at Eagle Pass has cooled off since then, but this conflict between States and Washington represents a potential breaking point in the country. The question is quite reasonable: If the Federal Government fails to secure its borders, then it’s derelict of duty, and it’s up to the States to do it instead. This represents the greatest challenge to Federal power since the Civil War. Should this conflict flare up again, I’ll write a future post on it.

But the border with Mexico is long, and Texas, while large, is only one state. While immigrant encounters have dropped significantly at Texas crossing points, they’ll simply increase in other border states like New Mexico, Arizona, and California.

We can go further into messes like the clearly-misleading Border Security bill passed by the US Senate, but this post has gone on long enough already. The current state of illegal immigration in Western countries could easily fill books and still not catch all of the details. As I concluded from that old research paper I mentioned before: It’s a mess, no one has a good plan, and things will get worse before they get worse.