10 Comments
User's avatar
Andy's avatar

Always love reading your articles. 😊 It is worth remembering that The Fate of Empires was written in 1975 in the 'Age of Decadence' and it seems like Glubb was just describing what he saw around him. As a lifelong soldier and imperial administrator, he valued discipline, duty, and martial virtue above all and seeing 'decadence' and the lack of 'soldierly' values all around him, it wouldn't be surprising if he retrofitted historical cycles to fit that narrative (Confirmation Bias). I remember The Fate of Empires from years ago, not as a book but as a topic of conversation. One thing stuck in my mind, the Fate of Empires is like the 'Heroes journey'.

The Hero reaches manhood and is determined to make his mark on the world.

The Hero undertakes quests and adventures overcoming many trials and hardships

The hero is acclaimed by the people and achieves wealth and status

The hero becomes lazy, arrogant, uncaring and corrupt

He is eventually overthrown by a younger more energetic rival

Hard times make strong men, strong men make good times. good times make weak men, weak men make hard times.

Expand full comment
Sam McCommon's avatar

Valuable context there for Glubb, Andy. Agree that the rise and fall of a nation models the hero's journey. Question is, will the younger and more energetic rival come from within or from somewhere else?

Expand full comment
Andy's avatar

The old world is dying and the new world is struggling to be born. We live in the rubber of monsters

Expand full comment
Andy's avatar

*time. 🤦

Expand full comment
Sam McCommon's avatar

I kinda like "the rubber of monsters." Sounds like a Japanese punk band

Expand full comment
Andy's avatar

😂😂😂

Expand full comment
PJ Buys's avatar

This article deserves much more recognition. Well done. I look forward to reading the next few.

Expand full comment
Sam McCommon's avatar

Thank you!

Expand full comment
Roland Tye's avatar

Great article, Sam. Thought-provoking and also very readable. Many of us have been feeling that we're in "The End of Days" recently with regards Western civilization. But to see that several analysts already mapped out this path fairly accurately is something else entirely.

Expand full comment
Sam McCommon's avatar

Thanks Roland. An informal poll of people around me has always shown people feel something big is coming. This has been going on for a few years now – the collective consciousness is on high alert. In ~15 years or so we'll be through this period but it's gonna get bumpy

Expand full comment